Yes, I was skeptical just as you are! Nate Silver is a blogger for the NYT/FiveThirtyEight section. Apparently he the political world has been critical of the statistical methods used to predict the election. The criticism was not levied by obscure organizations, they include MSNBC, the LA Times and the Examiner.
The Obama campaign has been lauded for using consumer preference data for campaign targeting. Using a proprietary system, Mr. Silver was able to predict the election in much the same way. He correctly predicted the outcome of every single state. That is truly remarkable. I couldn’t help but think of the movie “Money Ball” and it turns out that Mr Silver is a former baseball statistician. This is an important read, and NYT/FiveThirtyEight will be a source of information for SJS in the years to come. There is a movie in here somewhere, and I cannot wait to see it.
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